Premarital cohabitation and divorce: Support for the "Trial Marriage" Theory?

A number of studies show that premarital cohabitation is associated with an increased risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Some argue that this is a consequence of selection effects and that once these are controlled for premarital cohabitation has no effect on dissolution. We examine the effect of premarital cohabitation on subsequent marital dissolution by using rich retrospective life-history data from Austria. We model union formation and dissolution jointly to control for unobserved selectivity of cohabiters and non-cohabiters. Our results show that those who cohabit prior to marriage have a higher risk of marital dissolution. However, once observed and unobserved characteristics are controlled for, the risks of marital dissolution for those who cohabit prior to marriage are significantly lower than for those who marry directly. The finding that premarital cohabitation decreases the risk of marital separation provides support for the "trial marriage" theory.Austria, event history analysis, rural, selection effects, union dissolution, urban

Does cohabitation prior to marriage raise the risk of marital dissolution and does this effect vary geographically?

A number of studies show that premarital cohabitation increases the risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Some argue that this is a consequence of selection effects and that once these are controlled for premarital cohabitation has no effect on dissolution. We extend this research by examining whether the effects of premarital cohabitation on marital dissolution vary across settlements within a country. Using retrospective event-history data from Austria, we model equations for union formation and dissolution jointly to control for unobserved selectivity of cohabiters or non-cohabiters. Our results show that those who cohabit prior to marriage have a higher risk of marital dissolution. However, once selection effects are controlled for, the risks of marital dissolution for those who cohabit prior to marriage are significantly lower than for those who marry directly. We show that strong selection effects relate to both cohabitation and direct marriage and these effects are consistent across all settlements.Austria, divorce, event history analysis, rural areas, urban areas

High fertility in city suburbs: compositional or contextual effects?

Fertility rates are known to be higher in city suburbs. One interpretation is that the suburban ‘context’ influences the behaviour of individuals who reside there while an alternative is that the ‘composition’ of the suburban population explains the higher fertility levels. Furthermore, suburban in-migrants who intend to have children may have a significant influence on suburban fertility rates. Using Finnish longitudinal register data we show that fertility rates are higher in the suburbs and rural areas and lower in the cities. While fertility variation across these residential contexts decreases significantly after controlling for women’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics, it does not disappear entirely suggesting that the local context may have some influence on fertility. While movers to suburbs do display higher fertility levels than non-migrant residents, their overall impact is not great because they form a small share of the suburban population.Finland, event history analysis, fertility, migration, residential mobility, rural areas, suburban areas, urban areas

Testing Inflation: A Bootstrap Approach

We note that the essential idea of inflation, that the universe underwent a brief period of accelerated expansion followed by a long period of decelerated expansion, can be encapsulated in a "closure condition" which relates the amount of accelerated expansion during inflation to the amount of decelerated expansion afterward. We present a protocol for systematically testing the validity of this condition observationally.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, matches Phys. Rev. Lett. versio

High Suburban Fertility: Evidence from Four Northern European Countries

This study examines fertility variation across different residential contexts in four Northern European countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We move beyond the conventional urban-rural focus of most previous studies of within-nation variations in fertility by distinguishing between urban centres and suburbs of cities and towns. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data and our analysis shows that fertility levels are significantly higher in suburbs than in urban centres; this pattern has persisted over the past quarter of a century for all four countries. A parity-specific analysis of Swedish register data reveals that total fertility varies between central cities and suburbs due to the relatively high first- and second-birth propensities in the suburbs. Further analysis shows that fertility variation between the central cities and suburbs persists after controlling for women’s socioeconomic characteristics. We discuss the role of various factors in accounting for high suburban fertility including omitted individual characteristics, contextual factors and selective residential moves of couples planning to have a child.fertility, Nordic countries, rural, suburban, urban

Differences in mental health between adults in stepfamilies and 'first families'

This study used longitudinal data from the UK National Child Development Study (N = 5844) to examine whether mental health measured at age 42 was associated with living in a stepfamily. Accounting for the potential selection of those with mental health problems at the onset of family formation (at age 23) into, or out of, stepfamilies we show that stepparents, their partners and particularly those in dual stepparent families all had worse mental health than parents in ‘first families’. It was also found that the mental health of men was worse if they were a stepparent than if they were the partner of a stepparent, while the reverse was the case for women

High suburban fertility: evidence from four Northern European countries

This study examines fertility variation across different residential contexts in four Northern European countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We move beyond the conventional urban-rural focus of most previous studies of within-nation variations in fertility by distinguishing between urban centres and suburbs of cities and towns. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data and our analysis shows that fertility levels are significantly higher in suburbs than in urban centres; this pattern has persisted over the past quarter of a century for all four countries. A parity-specific analysis of Swedish register data reveals that total fertility varies between central cities and suburbs due to the relatively high first- and second-birth propensities in the suburbs. Further analysis shows that fertility variation between the central cities and suburbs persists after controlling for women’s socioeconomic characteristics. We discuss the role of various factors in accounting for high suburban fertility including omitted individual characteristics, contextual factors and selective residential moves of couples planning to have a child.Europe, fertility, suburban areas

Contextualising demography: the significance of local clusters of fertility in Scotland

This study links empirical analysis of geographical variations in fertility to ideas of contextualising demography. We examine whether there are statistically significant clusters of fertility in Scotland between 1981 and 2001, controlling for more general factors expected to influence fertility. Our hypothesis, that fertility patterns at a local scale cannot be explained entirely by ecological socio-economic variables, is supported. In fact, there are ‘unexplained’ local clusters of high and low fertility, which would be masked in analyses at a different scale. We discuss the demographic significance of local fertility clusters as contexts for fertility behaviour, including the role of the housing market and social interaction processes, and the residential sorting of those displaying or anticipating different fertility behaviour. We conclude that greater understanding of local geographical contexts is needed if we are to develop mid-level demographic theories and shift the focus of fertility research from events to processes.Scotland, fertility, geography